Week 11
Broncos (6-3)
Broncos vs. Chargers (6-3)
It was only a month ago that the Denver Broncos beat the San Diego Chargers on a Monday night in their own house 34-23, to move to 6-0 and grab what looked to be an unbreakable grip on the AFC West. Now, the tables have turned, and Broncos have barely a fingertip-hold on the division lead coming into Sunday's showdown. Both of these teams have completely shifted momentum since they last met. The Chargers are riding a four-game winning streak, while the Broncos have lost three straight games by a combined 51 points. After watching the collapse by the Broncos down the stretch last year, there is a very uneasy feeling amongst Broncos fans that this year may be holding a similar fate. Most people believe that a loss this week to the Chargers would be the proverbial 'nail in the coffin' for the Broncos and their hopes for a division title, or possibly even a playoff berth. Although the exact ramifications of this game aren't clear, there is no doubt that this is the biggest game of the year to this point for the Broncos. Here are a few match-ups to watch that may decide the game:
Broncos O-line vs. Chargers Pass Rush:
Whether it's Kyle Orton or Chris Simms playing QB for the Broncos on Sunday, pass protection will be the key to the team’s passing success, or lack of it. A large part of San Diego’s rejuvenation has come from its defense, and more specifically, its pass-rush. Shawne Merriman and company have combined for 17 sacks in the last four weeks. Although the Broncos have only given up a combined seven sacks during their three-game slide, they have struggled protecting the passer and it has shown in the team’s production. Now, whether it's protecting a gimpy Kyle Orton, or adjusting to a left-handed Chris Simms, the Broncos offensive line needs to come up big if the Broncos hope to slow down the surging Chargers.
Broncos Secondary vs. Philip Rivers:
Philip Rivers has been on fire lately. He has passed for 957 yards with nine touchdowns and only one interception since these teams last met. When you look at the match-up on paper, there is no question that the Chargers have the edge offensively. Add into the equation Kyle Orton's iffy status because of an ankle injury, and the odds of the Broncos’ offense out-producing that of the Chargers becomes very slim. Unless of course, the Broncos secondary can hold Rivers in check and possibly create a turnover or two, giving the Broncos struggling offense a fighting chance.
Broncos D-line vs. Chargers O-line:
Maybe the most extreme example of the Broncos recent defensive futility is the way in which the defensive line has been losing the battle at the line of scrimmage. For the first six games of the season, the Broncos defense allowed an average of 80 yards rushing, and not a single team went over the century mark against them. The last three weeks, the same Broncos defense has allowed an average of 157 yards rushing and all three teams went well over 100 yards. Nearly twice as much! That's staggering. The Chargers still rank last in the league in rushing. But, they have a solid offensive line and seem to be gaining confidence after LaDainian Tomlinson had his best performance of the year, picking up 96 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles last week. If the Broncos are going to turn the season around, it needs to start up front, and it needs to start against the Chargers.
Fantasy Pick:
Brandon Marshall has been a very consistent fantasy performer as of late, so I wouldn't fault anyone for starting him. But, because of the uncertainty at quarterback for the Broncos and the fact the Chargers weakness is their run defense, I'm going with Knowshon Moreno as my top fantasy play this week. Moreno has been very active in the offense lately, and will likely get plenty of carries as well as passes out of the backfield. Thumbs up to starting Knowshon Moreno in your fantasy league.
--- SONNY PLATT.