Here is a video preview:
The Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins find themselves in similar situations, as they prepare to meet up Thursday night. Both teams are 4-5 and looking to reach the .500 mark at a critical point in the season. Both were playoff teams a year ago that saw their seasons end abruptly upon entering the postseason. Both were also expected to have a better record when this matchup was originally scheduled.
Both teams have had unsettling injury news this week. The Panthers will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Gross for the remainder of the season, in addition to linebacker Thomas Davis, who went down for the year the week before. The Dolphins will be without Ronnie Brown, the centerpiece of their trademark Wildcat formation, for the rest of 2009 after tests revealed further damage to his injured foot.
What will the loss of Brown do to the Dolphins offense? It's hard to say. Brown was the main catalyst in the Wildcat, taking most of the direct snaps from the shotgun position before either handing off to Ricky Williams or taking the ball himself. Brown also has been known to throw a touchdown pass every now and then. It was Brown's success with the Wildcat that softened the blow of losing quarterback Chad Pennington for the season with a shoulder injury early in the year, as young quarterback Chad Henne isn't quite ready to run an offense full time. That leaves unanswered questions about who will direct the Dolphins' offense.
One solution could be rookie quarterback/jack-of-all-trades Pat White. White has gotten some brief experience in the read-option formations the Dolphins like to run in addition to the Wildcat, an almost equally tricky play set to identify and defend. White experienced some success in the Dolphins' loss to the Patriots, and was able to produce a touchdown on an outside toss to Williams in last week's win over Tampa Bay. With Brown out, you can also expect to see second-year man Lex Hilliard get some carries to help Williams shoulder the load.
The Panthers and Dolphins have nearly identical rushing statistics on a per game basis, ranking third and fourth respectively in rushing yards per game, with only 0.4 yards separating them. The Dolphins' defense is the better of the two at stopping the run, allowing slightly less than 100 yards per game, but has yet to face a fellow top-five rushing team with the type of potency that the Panthers' dynamic duo possesses.
The two teams differ drastically when it comes to pass defense, with the Panthers resting in the top 10, while the Dolphins are giving up almost 240 yards per game through the air. Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme is coming off of his best game of the season, and with Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad also experiencing a spark last week, it could be a long day for the Dolphins' secondary even if they are able to slow down the running game.
Both teams are on the outside looking in at their respective playoff races, and a win Thursday would be huge for either club. The Panthers are just one game out of the last playoff spot in the NFC and the Dolphins rest at two games behind the last spot in the AFC, but also just two games out of their division race.
INJURY REPORT
For the Panthers, S Charles Godfrey (ankle) and FB Brad Hoover (ankle) are likely out after missing another full week of practice, and DE Charles Johnson (pectoral) is doubtful. DT Damione Lewis (shoulder) and RB Jonathan Stewart (achilles) are both listed as questionable despite having practiced fully on Wednesday, while RB DeAngelo Williams (knee) carries the same status after sitting out practice Wednesday. Williams said in an interview with the NFL Network on Wednesday that he would be ready to go for Thursday night.
Miami will be without TE Anthony Fasani (hip), DT Paul Soliai (ankle), and LB Erik Walden (hamstring). FS Tyrone Culver (ankle) and starting G Justin Smiley (shoulder) are listed as questionable, though Smiley practiced fully on Wednesday. Starting FS Gibril Wilson (hamstring) is listed as probable after practicing Wednesday.
KEY MATCHUPS
Jake Delhomme vs. Miami Secondary: Delhomme is coming off his best performance of the year after turning in his first 100-plus quarterback rating of the year against the Falcons last Sunday. The Dolphins come to Charlotte with a secondary that could be more questionable than the Falcons', and with less athletic personnel to bail it out.
Pat White vs. Panthers' Defense: Pat White could be the x-factor for the Dolphins on Thursday night, and the Panthers cannot let him rack up a bunch of yards and keep the abnormal playbook of the Dolphins alive and kicking in the absence of Ronnie Brown. There isn't a lot of film to watch on White, so the Panthers will have to use mainly in-game adjustments to stop the rookie -- something that will be more challenging with Thomas Davis missing at the outside linebacker position.
Panthers' Kick Coverage vs. Ted Ginn Jr.: The Dolphins have one of the best averages per return in the NFL, and are one of only three teams with 1,000 or more kick return yards this season. Ginn is one of the more explosive young returners in the league, as he showed in his two-touchdown game against the Jets earlier in the season. The Panthers must do a better job at covering returns in order to prevent Miami from starting with ideal field position or, worse, making a gamebreaking big play.
Double Trouble vs. Miami Run Defense: The Dolphins are giving up less than 100 yards per game on the ground, but the Panthers come in with more than 1,000 yards rushing in their last five games. Jonathan Stewart got back on track Sunday after a down game in New Orleans, and DeAngelo Williams is solidifying his place amongst the league's top running backs with a second consecutive stellar season.
PREDICTION
In the regular season, the Panthers have never beaten the Dolphins, one of only two teams they have yet to conquer. The two haven't met since 2005, however, and both franchises have since changed some key pieces. Tony Sparano has turned the Dolphins back into somewhat of a threat in the AFC, and has mastered the art of trickery with his and former Panthers offensive coordinator Dan Henning's Wildcat shenanigans.
The Panthers have finally found the successor, or successors, to Stephen Davis in the backfield and have been able to thrive in their run-first offense since. The Panthers are coming off their fourth win in their last six games and seem like a team that may be poised to make a legitimate run at the postseason in the coming weeks. The Dolphins just lost their most important player and will struggle to overcome his absence as they too try to turn themselves into playoff contenders. The Panthers will win this one, thanks to the running game -- again -- and some timely passing from Delhomme. Final score: 27-17.
-- AUSTIN PENNY